The Final Four – Who’ll make it to the UAAP Season 86 Finals?
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It has come down to this – half of the 8 competing teams have a shot at winning the UAAP Season 86 championship. The contending teams are the University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons, the Dela Salle Green Archers, the National University Bulldogs, and the defending champions, Ateneo Blue Eagles.
Curiously, 3 of the winningest teams in the UAAP – the Far Eastern University Tamaraws (20 titles), the University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers and the University of the East Red Warriors (18 titles each) have been booted out along with last year’s Final Four contender, the Adamson University Soaring Falcons.
The Maroons, which ended up #1 for the first time in the Final Four era, will go up against the Blue Eagles with a twice-to-beat advantage. This is the first time in the Tab Baldwin-era that the Katipunan-based catholic institution finished 4th after the elimination round. On the other hand, the Green Archers dominated the second round, winning all their 7 games on route to an 8-game winning streak, giving them the twice to beat incentive against the Bulldogs – a team that was perennially at the top of the perch in the elimination round alongside UP, but stumbled with back-to-back losses in their last two games.
How will these teams fare when the Final Four starts tomorrow? The Philippine Basketball Diaries assesses the chances of each team heading to the semifinals.
1. University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons (12-2)
Much has been said about the Maroons’ deep bench and how Coach Goldwyn Monteverde can insert at least 2 sets of lineups at any given time. But let’s give credit where it’s due – Monteverde’s penchant to give as much playing time to his players has been legendary dating back to his high school coaching days with Adamson and NU. While his players may be talented, the depth perception comes from Monteverde’s willingness to play his entire roster and continuously learn.
While many would opine that UP’s strength is its firepower, coming from top offensive players like foreign student athlete and Season 85 MVP Malik Diouf, CJ Cansino, JD Cagulangan, Harold Alarcon, Francis Lopez, Jan Jan Felicilda, among others, their calling card, particularly this season is their game long defensive intensity. Monteverde has brought with him his “in-your-face” defensive style and this philosophy has been embraced by practically everyone in the UP roster. The Maroons’ defense has forced multiple turnovers against their opponents, allowing them to score easily in transition. And because Monteverde suits up at least 14 players every game, the intensity never wanes as he always has flesh legs brought in to sustain their defense.
UP has its work cut out for them against the Blue Eagles, their chief rivals the past two seasons. Ateneo’s size and length will pose problems against UP’s lean frontline anchored on Diouf and Lopez. But the Maroons have an advantage in the backcourt with an array of guards that can hound Ateneo’s backcourt all game long. The Maroons cannot afford to lose their twice to beat edge if they lose this Saturday – otherwise, they will have to contend with an extremely dangerous opponent backstopped by a brilliant mind at the bench.
2. Dela Salle Green Archers (11-3)
(Photo courtesy of Inquirer Sports)
The hottest team in the league, new coach Topex Robinson has transformed these Archers to a lethal, fighting machine who work together on both ends of the court. They arguably have the best frontline in the UAAP with leading MVP candidate Kevin Quiambao, Mike Philips, Raven Cortez, Jonnel Policarpio and foreign student athlete Bright Nwankwo. But their backcourt is just as formidable with Evan Nelle CJ Austria, Gab Escandor, Joshua David and Mark Nonoy.
The depth of the Archers can be comparable to the Maroons, except that La Salle’s roster appears more balanced on paper. Quiambao alone will fill up the statsheet as a regular triple double threat making him perhaps the most complete collegiate player in the Philippines today. Quiambao is an offensive threat – whether if he’s posting up, facing the basket, or shooting the ball from beyond the arc. He’s also a tremendous stopper, an untiring workhorse and an exceptional help side defender. He and Philips, another exceptional rebounder with boundless energy and phenomenal motor, will make life difficult for anyone who tries to score inside the Archers’ interior fortress.
At the same time, Robinson has also provided Nonoy with a role that is perfect for him. Putting some discipline on his sometimes, wild ways, the speedy guard has been transformed into becoming a spot up shooter. Robinson has focused the playmaking more on Nelle or David while using Nonoy’s speed to move without the ball and look for open spots. Nonoy’s offensive production has significantly improved in the second round and he may end up as the barometer in the Archers’ backcourt. If Nonoy flourishes and scores well from outside, the Archers will dominate. If he couldn’t score, they’ll be vulnerable.
3. National University Bulldogs (10-4)
(Photo courtesy of Inquirer Sports)
All throughout the season, the NU Bulldogs have been under the radar, especially if compared to their three rivals in the Final 4. A situation that suits Coach Jeff Napa just fine because his boys have proven to deliver well sans any fanfare or attention.
Napa, himself, is someone who prefers to do things behind the klieg lights. They are the only team in the league to have beaten Ateneo twice and La Salle once. They have been either first or second place all throughout the elimination round until those back-to-back losses against Adamson and UP that relegated them to 3rd place. Yet, no one seems to remember.
What makes NU solid is their ability to execute their plays. Jumpstarting their offense is the flashy guard, Kean Baclaan, one of the most prolific court generals in college basketball today. They also get their offense from former UAAP Juniors MVP Jake Figueroa, Patrick Yu, foreign student athlete Omar John and swingman Jolo Manansala. Napa has transformed this unit into a silent but ferocious group of dawgs waiting for their opponents to make a mistake before preying on them. Figueroa’s their top offensive player but the key is Baclaan. If he can take charge and beat Nelle in their point guard matchup, NU has a chance. John will also have to steer clear from foul trouble while also putting pressure on Quiambao, Philips and Nwankwo to play honest defense on him.
4. Ateneo de Manila University Blue Eagles (7-7)
When the season started, practically everyone penciled the Blue Eagles to notch a back-to-back championship. This, despite losing the presence of their 3-time MVP, Ange Kouame, scorer Dave Ildefonso, BJ Andrade, and point guard Forthsky Padrigao. Ateneo has beefed up its lineup with the likes of foreign student athlete Joseph Obasa, Gilas national team player Mason Amos, Jarred Brown, Andrew Bongo and Kyle Gamber to join veterans Kai Ballungay, Chris Koon, Geo Chiu, Sean Quitevis, Gab Gomez and Jason Credo.
Baldwin’s problem, though, is finding the right chemistry for the team. While there’s no denying the teeming talent in their roster, the American coach has found difficulty getting consistency from every player. In what may perhaps be their best game of the season, the Blue Eagles romped away with the 4th slot in the Final Four with a surgical beating over the Soaring Falcons, 70-48, a great sign for their loyal fans who feel that this may be their breakout game.
The likelihood is that it is. Ateneo’s inconsistency has been its biggest weakness – one night, they’re capable of beating DLSU or UP, yet, on another night, they will stumble against FEU or Adamson. But with how Baldwin’s charges played last Wednesday, it may be a portent of things to come that this team may be peaking at the precise time.
Their biggest advantage, as it has been the past 7 years, is the man seated at the bench and running the show. Baldwin, a world-class coach who created a stir by steering New Zealand to an impressive 4th place finish in the 2006 FIBA World Basketball Championship, is generally recognized as the greatest basketball coach in the Philippines today. He has also led Ateneo to the last six UAAP finals, winning 4 of these, including a dominant one in Season 82 when they swept all their rivals and won 16 straight games. As such, despite Ateneo’s up and down performance this year, the Blue Eagles may be the most formidable possible rival in the Final Four for any twice to beat team. The Maroons will definitely have their hands full against the Eagles.
Fearful Forecast: (#1) UP in one game; (#2) DLSU in one game
